Peter Ayton


Peter Ayton is professor of Psychology at City, University of London where he has been since 1992. He has held visiting appointments at Carnegie-Mellon University; University of California, Los Angeles, INSEAD; Princeton University; University of Mannheim and the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin. His research is concerned with the experimental investigation of human judgement – especially risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. His publications frequently address applied issues including the impact of computerised advice on radiologists’ cancer screening decisions; magistrates’ bail decision-making; effect of personality and emotion on stock traders’ decisions, optimistic bias in convicted prisoners, procrastination in anaesthetists’ decision-making and the misconceptions of professional footballers. He has also published papers investigating cognitive illusions such as the sunk cost fallacy, the gambler’s fallacy, the hot hand fallacy and overconfidence. His books include “Judgmental Forecasting” (1987); “Subjective Probability” (1994) and “Myths and Facts about Football” (2008).