100M€ at 0.1% probability (Expected Value 100k€) vs. 1M€ at 10% probability (EV 100k€). Which would you choose?
While these figures are illustrative, I think they represent the fundamental choice between venture-backed big-league startups and bootstrapped, less ambitious entrepreneurship that doesn’t get as much attention or glory.
This blog documents my project of finding an idea and building a bootstrapped business. I’m writing primarily for myself—writing forces me to think more clearly and identify flaws in my reasoning. The public blog format adds a layer of accountability.
My journey has been shaped by courses I’ve taken at Aalto University (Starting Up: https://courses.minnalearn.com/en/courses/startingup/, Entrepreneurship: https://mycourses.aalto.fi/course/search.php?search=MNGT-A3001), along with inspiration from entrepreneurs like Rob Walling and various business books that have influenced my thinking.
My entrepreneurial philosophy
I don’t want to sell my time. While I’ve done consulting work, I wouldn’t want to start a consulting business. Instead, I want to create a product where the marginal cost of serving another customer is near zero. This provides freedom (timewise) and scalability.
I’ve deliberately chosen the path with a relatively small potential best-case upside based on better risk-adjusted value:
- Studies show limited extra happiness from extreme wealth beyond financial independence (marginal utility of income). If my happiness starts to plateau at, say, about 20k€ per month, why would I increase my risk of not achieving any meaningful results just for a better (measured in euros) best-case outcome?
- The venture model offers high potential outcomes but with an extremely low probability of success
- The bootstrapped model provides moderate best-case outcomes but with a higher probability
- There’s less competition in smaller niches (think “regional games” vs. “Olympics”)
My approach to finding and evaluating ideas
I have published a document summarizing what I’ve learned about finding and evaluating business ideas: https://users.aalto.fi/haapanm6/finding-idea-and-validating-saas-business/.
I originally wrote the text for myself but decided to publish it while reviewing my notes. I did this for the same reason I’m writing this blog; just the thought of publishing forces me to think more critically.
My current entrepreneurial reality
I currently operate three very small-scale SaaS services that I’ve created, which combined cover my salary. These services have flaws in market and product type selection and no doubt in execution as well. I’ve tried many more ideas that didn’t work out, usually ultimately due to poor research and planning. Still, I’m proud of my achievement: I’ve built something generating revenue—providing real value to real people. I find it amazing that people I’ve never met are willing to give me money in exchange for something I’ve built. I continue ideating and creating something new because I can’t assume my current services will generate revenue forever. I view them as learning stepping stones toward better businesses.
What’s next
What I plan to post here.
- Analysis of my ideation process with concrete examples
- Idea evaluation and early validation techniques with real-world examples
- A deep dive into one promising idea I’m currently working on
I’m not writing in real time. Instead, I’m converting private notes into posts for the early stages to document and analyze my process. I may transition to real-time blogging later if I continue to find this habit useful and I will reach my actual stage.